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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 36

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(:24) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.88 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model