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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 86

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to DEN 42, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 41 for -1 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.36 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 86, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 44, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP