4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 8

New England Patriots 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 95-K.Tonga and 97-M.Williams reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye up the middle to DEN 7 for 1 yard (99-Z.Allen). Denver challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +3.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model