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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 5

New England Patriots 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.52 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP