Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 71

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 10

(3:59) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to NE 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 25-M.Jones to NE 21 for 2 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.66 EP
50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model