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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 28

New England Patriots 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) 36-A.Borregales 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.31 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model