Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 60

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 10

(14:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.46 EP
61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model