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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 6 at the 53
Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 10
What Actually Happened
(8:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to NE 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.46 EP
Model's Pick
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.54 EP
- 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.54 EP
KICK
-1.45 EP
- 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
- 78% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT
-0.66 EP
What Happened
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
