Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 93

New England Patriots 10 – Denver Broncos 7

(7:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to NE 33, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.78 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 93, worth -5.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model