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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 28

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.22 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model