Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 63

New England Patriots 10 – Denver Broncos 7

(3:11) 17-B.Baringer punts 31 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.69 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -2.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model