Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 56

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 7

(6:46) 17-B.Baringer punts 33 yards to DEN 23, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-24-D.Pettus.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.64 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model