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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 55

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.01 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model