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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 85

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to DEN 42, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 43 for 1 yard (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model