Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 88

New England Patriots 0 – Seattle Seahawks 6

(3:03) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to SEA 33, Center-47-J.Ashby. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 43 for 10 yards (91-E.Ponder).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.04 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 88, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model