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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
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New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2026-02-08 · 18:30 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

SEA
47.8%
NE
52.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • NE defense: -0.169 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.233 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Drake Maye (NE) +0.181 vs Sam Darnold (SEA) +0.130 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
NE 27
Projected margin: NE by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 22

SEA

Robbie Ouzts FB Questionable Neck

NE

Joshua Farmer DT Out Hamstring
Robert Spillane LB Questionable Ankle
Harold Landry III LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 22 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 29
–
NE 13

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:02 FG SEA (12:02) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – NE 0
  • Q2 11:20 FG SEA (11:20) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 6 – NE 0
  • Q2 00:16 FG SEA (:16) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 9 – NE 0
  • Q3 09:17 FG SEA (9:17) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 12 – NE 0
  • Q4 13:29 TD SEA (13:29) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 88-A.Barner for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 18 – NE 0
  • Q4 12:33 TD NE (12:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 13-M.Hollins for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 19 – NE 6
  • Q4 05:38 FG SEA (5:38) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 22 – NE 7
  • Q4 04:37 TD SEA (4:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle intended for 9-K.Boutte INTERCEPTED by 7-U.Nwosu (21-D.Witherspoon) [21-D.Witherspoon] at NE 45. 7-U.Nwosu for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 28 – NE 7
  • Q4 02:28 TD NE (2:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 29 – NE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (12:02) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 46%

    (7:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 34 yards to SEA 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to NE 36, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 15 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to NE 32, Center-41-C.Stoll. 25-M.Jones to NE 32 for no gain (42-D.Thomas).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to SEA 24, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 14 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

    (11:20) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:23) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to SEA 29, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. ** Injury Update: NE-48-J.Tavai has returned to the game.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 51%

    (5:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to NE 2, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:03) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to SEA 33, Center-47-J.Ashby. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 43 for 10 yards (91-E.Ponder).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 89%

    (:16) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (14:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 52 yards to SEA 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (9:17) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to SEA 18, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to NE 33, Center-41-C.Stoll. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at SEA 48 for 19 yards (4-M.Dickson). ** Injury Update: SEA-48-T.Knight has returned to the game. PENALTY on NE-24-D.Pettus, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 37.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 46 yards to SEA 21, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to NE 27, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-28-N.Pritchett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to NE 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (5:38) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.