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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 23

Seattle Seahawks 6 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:16) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.88 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model