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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 61

New England Patriots 0 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 52 yards to SEA 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.47 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP