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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 14

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP