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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 22

Seattle Seahawks 9 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.04 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model