Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 12 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to NE 33, Center-41-C.Stoll. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at SEA 48 for 19 yards (4-M.Dickson). ** Injury Update: SEA-48-T.Knight has returned to the game. PENALTY on NE-24-D.Pettus, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.52 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model