Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 19 – New England Patriots 7

(10:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to NE 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-32-V.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.50 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model