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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 8

Seattle Seahawks 19 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.69 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 8, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP