4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 44

New England Patriots 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 34 yards to SEA 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.91 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model