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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 86

Seattle Seahawks 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to NE 36, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.26 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 86, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model