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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to NE 32, Center-41-C.Stoll. 25-M.Jones to NE 32 for no gain (42-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model