Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 63

New England Patriots 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(14:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to SEA 24, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.45 EP
54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model