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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to HOU 36 for -2 yards (3-K.Lassiter).

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -2.00 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model