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Buffalo Bills

1-0 HC Sean McDermott
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Houston Texans

0-1 HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET Reliant Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

BUF
50.3%
HOU
49.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.140 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25 18–32
–
HOU 21 14–28
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

BUF

Ty Johnson RB Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Hancock CB Questionable Quadricep
T.J. Sanders DE Questionable Knee

HOU

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 36
–
HOU 31

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:32 FG BUF (7:32) 16-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. BUF 3 – HOU 0
  • Q1 00:37 TD HOU (:37) 32-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – HOU 6
  • Q2 12:57 TD BUF (12:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – HOU 7
  • Q2 04:53 TD HOU (4:53) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 10 – HOU 13
  • Q2 04:02 TD BUF (4:02) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – HOU 14
  • Q2 01:39 TD BUF (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – HOU 14
  • Q2 00:31 TD HOU (:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 24 – HOU 20
  • Q3 04:27 FG BUF (4:27) 16-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. BUF 27 – HOU 21
  • Q4 13:39 TD HOU (13:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – HOU 27
  • Q4 10:36 FG BUF (10:36) 16-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. BUF 30 – HOU 28
  • Q4 06:48 FG HOU (6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. BUF 30 – HOU 31
  • Q4 01:41 TD BUF (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 36 – HOU 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 76%

    (11:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to HOU 36 for -2 yards (3-K.Lassiter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%

    (7:32) 16-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 57 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 20 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:19) 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover; 30-W.Woodaz). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at BUF 28.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:41) 39-T.Doman punts 63 yards to HOU 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:10) 38-K.Kroeger punts 44 yards to BUF 47, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch to HOU 43 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 35-J.Hansen). HOU-33-J.Hummel was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (4:27) 16-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:50) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford; 56-J.Solomon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 92%

    (:04) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to BUF 19 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 90-D.Carter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%

    (10:36) 16-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 65%

    (6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:45) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to HOU 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:24) 38-K.Kroeger punts 59 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-22-J.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →