Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 76

Houston Texans 21 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover; 30-W.Woodaz). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at BUF 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.57 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model