Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 24 – Houston Texans 21

(9:41) 39-T.Doman punts 63 yards to HOU 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.23 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model