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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 91

Houston Texans 21 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 38-K.Kroeger punts 44 yards to BUF 47, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch to HOU 43 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 35-J.Hansen). HOU-33-J.Hummel was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.41 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 91, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model