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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 24 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 16-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.59 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model