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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 39

Houston Texans 28 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.53 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP