Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 30 – Houston Texans 31

(5:45) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to HOU 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.26 EP
64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model