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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 63 yards to DEN 4, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 23 for 19 yards (31-J.Bassa; 88-J.Briningstool).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model