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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Monday 2026-09-14 · 20:15 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ❓ Unknown Spread 3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

DEN
39.9%
KC
60.1%
Unknown

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.155 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN defense: -0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 23
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.

Actual Result

Not played yet.