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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 38

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) (Shotgun) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to DEN 35 for 3 yards (96-E.Uwazurike; 9-T.Hufanga).

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.92 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model