Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 61

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(:58) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to KC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. PENALTY on KC-22-J.Canady, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at KC 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.79 EP
54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model