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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.33 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model