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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 44

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to KC 3, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-13-P.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model