Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 68

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 27 for 15 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 34-J.Skinner). PENALTY on KC-13-C.Allen, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at KC 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.42 EP
53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model