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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 71

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

What Actually Happened

(4:41) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Franklin (20-N.Williams) [56-G.Karlaftis].

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.43 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 29, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EP