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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 12

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 19-B.Thorson punts 34 yards to GB 14, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.48 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model