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Green Bay Packers

0-1 HC Matt LaFleur
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Minnesota Vikings

1-0 HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 16:25 ET U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

GB
55.0%
MIN
45.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.164 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Jordan Love (GB): +0.241 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

GB 24 17–31
–
MIN 22 15–29
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

GB

Warren Brinson DT Out Calf
Aaron Banks G Questionable Knee
Zach Bako-Bewele T Questionable Knee
Ty'Ron Hopper LB Questionable Achilles

MIN

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 22
–
MIN 39

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:16 FG GB (12:16) 28-T.Smack 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 07:54 TD GB (7:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-2-I.Rodgers was injured during the play. GB 9 – MIN 0
  • Q1 01:42 FG MIN (1:42) 16-W.Reichard 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. GB 9 – MIN 3
  • Q2 13:56 FG GB (13:56) 28-T.Smack 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 12 – MIN 3
  • Q2 02:02 TD MIN (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Defensive Offside, declined. GB 12 – MIN 9
  • Q2 00:18 TD GB (:18) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 18 – MIN 10
  • Q3 05:12 FG GB (5:12) 28-T.Smack 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 22 – MIN 10
  • Q3 02:11 TD MIN (2:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 22 – MIN 16
  • Q4 06:42 TD MIN (6:42) 33-A.Jones left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 22 – MIN 23
  • Q4 04:52 TD MIN (4:52) 27-J.Mason right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-99-B.Sorrell, Defensive Offside, declined. GB 22 – MIN 31
  • Q4 04:03 TD MIN (4:03) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 22 – MIN 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 12 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%

    (12:16) 28-T.Smack 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:13) 19-B.Thorson punts 36 yards to GB 19, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

    (1:42) 16-W.Reichard 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

    (13:56) 28-T.Smack 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%

    (10:40) 19-B.Thorson punts 34 yards to GB 14, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 40%

    (8:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIN 4, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-16-B.Melton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:08) 19-B.Thorson punts 43 yards to MIN 48, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-S.Moore to MIN 36 for 12 yards (42-A.DePaola; 29-Jac.Thomas).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:09) 19-D.Whelan punts 22 yards to MIN 40, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:07) 19-B.Thorson punts 48 yards to GB 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-S.Moore pushed ob at GB 13 for 5 yards (41-J.Golday). ** Injury Update: GB-81-J.Whyle has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (5:12) 28-T.Smack 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (13:17) 10-J.Love right guard to MIN 17 for no gain (97-D.Orange). (Virtual Measurement).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (1:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 23-S.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →