Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 19 – Minnesota Vikings 10

(12:09) 19-D.Whelan punts 22 yards to MIN 40, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.71 EP
65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model