Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 19-B.Thorson punts 48 yards to GB 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-S.Moore pushed ob at GB 13 for 5 yards (41-J.Golday). ** Injury Update: GB-81-J.Whyle has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model