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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 19 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 28-T.Smack 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model