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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 22 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 10-J.Love right guard to MIN 17 for no gain (97-D.Orange). (Virtual Measurement).

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.76 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model