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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 19-B.Thorson punts 36 yards to GB 19, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.25 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model